Skip navigation.
Last Updated: Friday 3 April 2009 11:35 HRS | [Write for us] | [Login/Register]
Home
 

Buy These Stocks and Make Money



True story: The other day, I (Brian) received an email with this as a subject line: "Buy these stocks and make money."

Of course, the email ended up touting a $0.04 penny stock with an un-pronounceable name (it looked fake). Apparently, an "analyst" somewhere assigned a short-term "price target" of $1.10 to this stock.

We're liberally applying quotation marks here to reiterate the
obvious absurdity of The Stock That Will Return 2,650% in One Month.

Back to real life

Ridiculous claims in the stock market are nothing new, of course, and ridiculous claims from analysts are especially old hat. (Click here for a story about the analysts who pegged Countrywide Financial "outperform," with a $45 price target, in the fall of 2007. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
eventually bought Countrywide in an all-stock deal that pegged
Countrywide at about $4. Some analysts speculate that even $4 was too
high!)

We'll even go so far as to advise you to fight -- violently, if
necessary -- whatever urge you may have to click on the "analyst
opinions" tab at Yahoo! Finance. While it may seem prudent to see what
the "smart money" thinks of your stock, this page is one of the most
dangerous places on the Internet -- truly NSFW, as the tech savvy say.
It's not even worth the five seconds it takes for your browser to load
the page.

That's because (1) you get no context and (2) nearly every single
stock -- surprise, surprise for an industry that makes money by
convincing you to buy stocks -- is considered "undervalued." Here are a
few notable examples:

Company

Closing Price, March 26, 2009

Analyst Target Price (Mean)

Analyst Target Price (Low)

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)

$17.26

$23.65

$17.00

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX)

$19.65

$24.50

$18.00

Transocean (NYSE: RIG)

$63.98

$95.62

$60.00

Visa (NYSE: V)

$55.50

$64.79

$50.00

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ)

$33.20

$42.43

$30.00

CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS)

$28.60

$36.60

$32.00

Data from Yahoo! Finance.

While we see the merits of an investment in NYSE Euronext,
Hewlett-Packard, and so forth, it's preposterous to assume that every
single one of our semi-random sampling of stocks is, on average,
undervalued by some 31%.

Please.

But let's talk about you

You opened this
article for the same reason Brian opened the email with the same
headline: to see which stocks you should buy to make money.

After all, it is a good headline -- direct, relevant,
practical, and appears to offer applicable advice. And it plays to a
core human emotion: the quick, easy buck.

Yet if it's a quick, easy buck you're after, there are no
stocks you can buy to make money. At least, not reliably. And that, to
bring us full circle, is the problem with sell-side analyst research.
While these five- to 20-page reports can often provide useful insights,
they're not reproduced on Yahoo! Finance. Instead, individual investors
who won't pay up for premium research are left to divine meaning out of
useless, optimistic, one-year price targets.

Again, don't bother.

Buy these stocks and make money

If
you're willing to change your mind-set, however, then there are stocks
you can buy to make money. These are stocks in companies that ...

  1. Have a sustainable competitive advantage such as economies of scale, high switching costs, or network effects.
  2. Treat all of their constituents -- customers, employees, and shareholders -- as partners in the business.
  3. Are
    financially strong enough to take advantage of down economies like this
    one to expand market share, buy up valuable assets on the cheap, and
    enhance their competitive position.

And we'll add a new trait to that list amid this paralyzing
downturn: Exposure to multiple foreign markets, which provide
diversification and the potential for faster growth.

One stock to make money

Of course, we'd be remiss, after promising so much in the headline, not to give you at least one stock idea straight from our Motley Fool Global Gains investing service, so here it is: America Movil.

This company is the dominant cellular provider in Mexico and one that's actually seen subscriber numbers increase
with new number portability (indicating a significant competitive
advantage). It's also shown a willingness to repurchase shares and pay
a dividend to shareholders. And it continues to grab market share in
Mexico, Brazil, and elsewhere given that it has a much stronger balance
sheet than its competitors and has already established 3G networks in
most of its markets.

The catch is that while America Movil looks like a promising
long-term opportunity, we have no idea if it will make you a quick,
easy buck. But if anyone tells you they can do that, they're lying.

In sum

When it comes to investing
successfully, look for the four traits above in any stock idea and
commit to putting money in the market for the long haul. And take
seriously the opportunities abroad. As co-advisor of our Motley Fool Global Gains
service (Tim) and a contributing author to the international investing
chapter of our most recent book (Brian), we believe that the growth
potential of many foreign stocks -- even some of the stalwarts -- could
lead to multibagger returns at today's prices.

Copyright © 2009 Universal Press Syndicate.

short sell

how can a stock have on the market more short stock then regular, like "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. " simbol GMCR ? 54% is short.

Post new comment

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Recent comments

User login

Recent comments

LiveZilla Live Help