A sputtering economy, implosions at financial institutions, or just plain bad management -- on any given day, investors can name a number of reasons to sell a stock. Yet while panic is never beneficial to investors, it's good practice to play devil's advocate with investments from time to time.
by
Dave Mock Published on March 7, 2009 - 1 comments
In Motley Fool CAPS, more than 130,000 members have weighed in on more than 5,300 stocks, sharing bullish and bearish opinions alike.
In the case of solar module maker First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), a total of 3,538 members have weighed in on its chances of success. I've already plucked out some of the bullish rationale backing First Solar today, so here are three counterpoints to consider, courtesy of CAPS:
Pricey: While many CAPS members like the company, some feel the current price is still too steep and are sitting on the sidelines or plucking away at other stocks priced at bargain-basement levels. Some investors want to see stronger free cash flow and growth before jumping in.
Grim 2009 outlook: Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) reported a worse-than-expected quarterly loss and weak outlooks are also coming from Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ), LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), and JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO). For its part, First Solar said the short-term outlook has never looked more difficult, hence many investors expect it to get worse before it gets better.
Financing issues: Though government stimulus packages may help First Solar, SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA), or Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq: ENER), the level of subsidies aren't enough to entice many consumers. With the majority of solar projects financed by debt, some would-be buyers -- along with the providers themselves -- will likely have trouble getting financing and lead to slower take-up. First Solar is extending payment terms and other alternatives to keep sales up, but it all comes at a price to the company and the stock.
Of course, First Solar has already thrived in its relatively short public life. But the question about whether the company will continue to grow is why CAPS is such a great resource to augment your own analysis.
Copyright © 2008 Universal Press Syndicate.
Someone will emerge from the solar industry
If you take a long term view to investing, you know solar power is not going away. It may have to make significant strategy shifts, but it will stay around. That means, someone will emerge the industry leader. There is no indication that anyone but FSLR has the chance at making that occur. They have the cheapest price per power produced. They have the best financial situation to weather the storm (think: they CAN finance projects...hmmm...that's good).
Buy and hold. Buy and hold. Buy and hold. Most analysts project $7 EPS soon. Multiply that by a decent P/E and already the stock looks good. Wait one year and it will look even better.