Whither, Whether, Wal-Mart?

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). It's big. It's bad. (Well, some people say so.) And it's vitally important to America, or at least American financial journalists, who like to try and use every financial pronouncement from the Bentonville behemoth as a bellwether for the entire economy.

Today's happy-happy-joy-joy retail news is headlining the surprise gain in Wal-Mart's same-store sales. A coupla percent gain, 2.4%, to be precise, wouldn't be news at a lot of other outfits, but when you're as big as Wal-Mart, little things become big things.

But what does it really mean beyond Wal-Mart?

I've long had a suspicion that Wal-Mart isn't a good barometer of overall economic demand from consumers, as some imply. Instead, I see it as something of a contrary indicator -- it sure seems to have operated as one over the past few years, at least. As consumers have opened up their wallets to drive record results and focused retailers like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), or hipper discount peer Target (NYSE: TGT), Wal-Mart had languished.

Now that gas prices are going through the roof and the home-loan ATM is shutting down, does the return to prominence at Wal-Mart signal something good about the U.S. economy? Are consumers more resilient and spendy than we thought?

My first thought is "no way." In my vast experience as a cheapskate, I've found that people seem more likely to shop at Wal-Mart when they feel pinched financially, and they're willing to put up with the crammed, zoo-like stores just to save a few bucks. People who feel affluent, I think, head further upscale, whether that's Target, or a trip to the mall to blow a few bucks at Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN). If they're not feeling up to those apparel price points, there's always Gap 's (NYSE: GPS) Old Navy. Foodies feeling flush can dump the whole paycheck at Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI).

Wal-Mart's latest results highlighted success in groceries, which would seem to lend some support to the pressured consumer hypothesis. Honestly, who goes to Wal-Mart for food, other than those who feel the need to make a single trip to a single store? But strangely enough, if we want to go with a "sky is falling" thesis, there's a fly in our ointment. Electronics and other discretionary gadgets also did well, though that seems to be based on a bump from the arrival of computers from Dell (Nasdaq: DELL).

In other words, I think good news for Wal-Mart signals bad news for the economy, and probably for many other retailers. It's been a heck of a party, but if people are swapping caviar for Cheez Whiz, I think the good times may be winding down.

Or maybe, just maybe, this is too much navel-staring for a single short sales call. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and if you get it from Wal-Mart, it's going to be a cheap one. Perhaps a decent month's comps for Wal-Mart may be just as mundane.