Alzheimer’s outbreak anticipated to occur by 2050

A wide-ranging Alzheimer’s outbreak is expected to occur by the end of 2050 when the 26 million people suffering from the disease presently will multiply four times to 106 million, as anticipated by researchers from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.

The prediction was revealed by Professor Ron Brookmeyer, from the Bloomberg School of Public Health in Maryland, at the International Conference on the Prevention of Dementia held in Washington DC yesterday who blamed the increasing aging population for the growth in the disease as a lot of drugs are now available which have increased the overall life span of people.

He envisioned the biggest rise in Alzheimer cases in Asia and forecasted a growth of such cases from 12.65 million (48%) in 2006 to 62.85 million in 2050 (59%).

"We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages. By 2050, one in 85 people worldwide will have Alzheimer's disease. However, if we can make even modest advances in preventing Alzheimer's disease or delay its progression, we could have a huge global public health impact.” he said.

According to Alzheimer’s society in Britain (UK), they can see the figure sizing up to 1.7 million Alzheimer struck patients by the end of 40 years. Presently the number of people suffering from dementia gathers up to 700,000 out of which 400,000 are Alzheimer’s sufferers and 60,000 die from it every year. The society’s concern lies with the increasing costs, which is currently UK £17bn a year (£11bn due to Alzheimer’s), due to increase in the number of patients.

The study predicting the epidemic was concluded as a result of a primary test undertaken by experts from San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Centre in California to predict the risk of dementia in people over the next 6 years. The new test which is 87% accurate uses medical history, cognitive function and physical examination as inputs and rates people on the basis of age factors and the reduction in speed for conducting everyday tasks like buttoning a shirt etc.

The chief executive of the Alzheimer’s society, Neil Hunt, suggested measures like healthy lifestyles and predicting dementia at an earlier stage to wipe off the disease. But he also said that there is always a risk involved in any test used to figure out symptoms of dementia. He also called dementia as incurable and believed that people would get scared rather than be willing to act at the time of discovering the disease in them. He is also banking upon the stem cell research team to find a cure for Alzheimer’s.

The Maryland research painted "a stark picture of the impact of Alzheimer's disease on a global scale. A national dementia strategy must consider the global scale of Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia. We must make it a national health priority.” he added.

Alzheimer’s is mainly a neurological disorder where a person slowly and progressively starts loosing his memory due to gradual loss of brain cells. It is the most common form of dementia (loss of intellectual ability) and is the fourth leading cause of deaths in adults according to National Institute of Health (NIH).

The causes of Alzheimer’s are still vague and unknown. It is thought to affect people with increasing age and one in five people over the age of 80 years with 5% of those over 65 having some form of the disease. In 1998, the annual cost for the care of patients with AD in the United States was approximately $40,000 per patient.

According to the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association, Inc. Alzheimer’s is caused gradually and the entire process is divided into 7 stages. Its symptoms include loss of memory, confusion and problems with speech and understanding.

The other major symptoms of Alzheimer’s are aphasia, apraxia, agnosia. Impairment is also caused in the frontal and temporal lobes of the brain, fading decision-making and planning abilities.

Researchers have been trying to formulate various methods to prevent dementia, which is popular among the elderly. But the various medications available do not promise a full cure. Although, they help in ameliorating memory, but effectual treatment can be seen only in a handful of patients.

A recent study by Wake Forest University School of Medicine found that some high blood pressure medicines may help shield older adults from downslopes in memory and other cognitive functions.