2007 to Witness major Hurricanes

Five intense hurricanes are expected to hit the Atlantic basin in 2007. The Colorado State University forecast team has predicted a very active 2007 hurricane season. The team anticipates 17 storms to hit the basin between June 1 and November 30.

Meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, of the Colorado team, anticipate that out of those 17 storms, nine possess the potential to transform into major hurricanes. Of these nine, it has been predicted that five could be intense hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 Mph or greater. The intensity of the predicted hurricanes has been rated as 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale.

The 2007 hurricane season, though, will not be as active as the 2005 season. “We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons,” said Klotzbach. “Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent.”

Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused a major upheaval in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.

The 2005 hurricane season was an unusually active one. 2005 witnessed 27 storms and 15 hurricanes, of which 7 were very intense. Four of these hurricanes hit the U.S. coast. The worst among these was ‘Katrina’, which destroyed New Orleans and parts of the Gulf coast region.

In the 2006 season, there were 10 storms, 5 hurricanes and, 2 major hurricanes. The 2006 season was considered a near-normal season. None of the hurricanes in 2006 hit the U.S. coast.

In 2006, Gray’s forecast as well as the government forecasts were higher than what the season actually produced. The university team’s forecast is based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures that preceded active/inactive hurricanes in the past.

According to Klotzbach, ““The 2006 season was only the 12th year since 1945 that the United States witnessed no hurricane landfalls. Since then, we have had only two consecutive-year periods where there were no hurricane landfalls - 1981-1982 and 2000-2001.”

The forecasters expect warm tropical and north Atlantic sea surface temperatures in 2007. These patterns have been prevalent since 1995. They also predict weak or neutral El Nino conditions. All these factors ultimately lead to conditions highly conducive to hurricanes. These factors are similar to conditions in the 1952, 1964, 1966, 1995, and 2003 seasons, all of which had well above-average activity.

The average Atlantic season begins from June 1 to Nov. 30, and averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. The hurricane forecast team predicts activity in 2007 will be 185 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.

“We’ve had an upturn of major storms since 1995,” Gray said. “We think this upturn of major storms will continue for another 15 or 20 years.” William Gray has been working with the Colorado State University forecast team since the last 24 years. He has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

According to the forecast team, there is a 74 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2007 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent). The team also predicts that there is a 50 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

The team predicts above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean. It has also been predicted that there might be a 49 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The forecast team does not attribute changes in recent and projected Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming.

The forecast team’s Landfall Probability website enlists probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of times. Probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and, 205 counties along the U.S. coastline have been provided.

The website is available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane. The site is updated regularly by the forecast team with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts.

The federal government forecasters will release their predictions in late May.