The hottest investments in 2009 have been, in no particular order:
Following the bludgeoning we took last winter, it's no surprise that investors have either sought lower volatility in the fixed-income market or have tried to regain some ground in more volatile equities.
Those sectors may have been the market's strongest buys last December, as the market was extremely risk averse, but not this December. No, the market's strongest buys today are in the very areas that investors at large have been ignoring this year -- namely high-quality, U.S.-based blue chips.
Boo this man!
In his most recent quarterly letter
to investors, GMO Capital's Jeremy Grantham argued that "Quality stocks
(high, stable return and low debt) simply look cheap and have gotten
painfully cheaper as the Fed beats investors into buying junk and other
risky assets."
It's these companies, after all, that not only have the balance sheets to withstand another shock to the economy in the coming years, but also generate a substantial amount of their earnings overseas -- a bonus for those who believe in the emerging-market growth story and the need for diversification away from the U.S. dollar.
Incredibly, investors have largely shunned a number of high-quality U.S. blue chips in favor of the aforementioned three alternatives.
Consider:
And that means savvy investor can find some excellent opportunities.
Best buys now
With many investors' attention turned elsewhere, here are five U.S. blue chips that deserve some extra research right now.
To find promising, long-term candidates, my search targeted companies with:
|
Company |
Return on Equity |
Interest Coverage |
Price-to-Free Cash Flow |
% of Sales Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) |
27.7% |
15.1 |
19.3 |
66% |
|
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) |
32.9% |
13.4 |
17.3 |
66% |
|
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) |
35.6% |
10.6 |
11.5 |
48% |
|
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) |
19.3% |
15.3 |
12.3 |
69% |
|
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) |
26.6% |
34.8 |
14.1 |
49% |
Data from Capital IQ, as of Dec. 11.
Now compare these high-quality companies with the financial health of two stocks that have led the junk rally since early March: Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), up more than 800%, and Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), up nearly 500%.
|
Company |
Return on Equity |
Interest Coverage |
|---|---|---|
|
Office Depot |
Negative |
Negative |
|
Rite Aid |
No equity |
0.3 |
Surely congratulations are in order for investors who bought into Office Depot and Rite Aid in early March when the market was avoiding risky assets -- both have since become multibaggers.
But these "frog-to-prince" stories have not only played by now, but another downturn in the economy could further rattle these highly leveraged companies.
Coming full circle
At the end of the day,
investing is not just about buying low and selling high. It's about
being comfortable and understanding what you own. If you don't, you're
more likely to panic and make poor trading decisions. In today's market
you can have the best of both worlds through buying quality U.S. large
caps at good prices.
Simply put, they're the market's strongest buys right now.
I've already given you five ideas to get started, but if you want to find similar ideas for yourself, start by looking for companies with the following qualities.
© 2009 UCLICK, L.L.C.