Diabetes is a serious condition with fatal consequences. In U.S., nearly 24 million people (11 percent) have diabetes. Most have Type 2 diabetes, which leads to heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney failure, and amputation.
Diabetes surge forecast
On Friday, a team of researchers at the University of Chicago revealed some shocking figures related to the disease. The alarming figures show that the number of people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes will climb to 44.1 million from the current number of 23.7 million by 2034.
The direct medical cost of treating the disease will jump from $113 billion annually to $336 billion, says the report published in the November issue of Diabetes Care.
"We forecast that in the next 25 years, the population size of people with diabetes -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed -- will rise from approximately 24 million people to 44 million people by the year 2034," said lead author of the study Dr. Elbert Huang of the University of Chicago.
"We anticipate that the cost of taking care of those people -- and these are direct medical costs -- will triple over the same period of time, going from $113 billion today to $336 billion (per year)," he added.
In addition, about 90 percent of those with diabetes have type 2 diabetes, a version of the condition closely linked to obesity.
Medical spending on diabetes also to jump
Huang along with his colleagues constructed a model of diabetes costs to help forecast the impact of alternative policy scenarios as Congress debates changes in the health care system, particularly to Medicare- the U.S. health insurance program for the elderly and disabled.
Huang’s model estimates that the number of Americans covered by Medicare during the aforementioned time period will rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, and annual Medicare spending on diabetes will rise from $45 billion to $171 billion.
"We built this model to improve the budgetary and health outcome information available to federal policymakers," said the researchers. "The model provides a rigorous assessment of the future burden of diabetes that accounts for the natural history of the disease and recent advances in treatment."
"Without significant changes in public or private strategies, this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system," they concluded.
Diabetes--a major public health issue
Huang said diabetes cases are surging day by day and some major steps are needed to contain the disease and deal with the diabetes-related spending.
"Diabetes is a major public health problem right now, but it's important for the country and for policymakers to have an idea of what will happen in the next couple of decades," Huang said. "We already have a financial crisis at hand in healthcare and we need to plan for how we can deal with those costs in the future," he said.
About the disease and its kinds
Diabetes is a metabolic disorder which results from the deficiency of insulin in the body, leading to excessive sugar build up. It's the seventh leading cause of death in the United States and can cause heart disease, blindness, kidney failure, and amputations of all or part of the legs.
The World Health Organization recognizes two main forms of diabetes: type 1 and type 2.
Type-1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease that leaves the body without insulin to regulate the metabolism of sugar. It is the condition in which the body attacks itself, destroying the pancreatic beta cells that the body needs to regulate blood sugar or glucose. The cells in the pancreas produce insulin, the hormone that regulates blood glucose.
Type 2 is characterized by tissue-wide insulin resistance and varies widely; it sometimes progresses to loss of beta cell function. Types 1 and 2 are incurable chronic conditions, but have been treatable since insulin became medically available in 1921.
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