But there are some good things we can count on in the
investing world. For many people, that might be particularly good news,
given what 2008 did to most of our investment accounts.
Good old history
For starters, we can
count on history -- not as a guaranteed predictor of future events, but
as a rather reliable guide of what to expect. We've suffered through
market crashes before, and we'll likely do so again -- and after each
one, the market has rebounded.
Before 2008, you were probably aware that the stock market had
averaged gains of around 10% annually over many decades. After 2008,
the average is ... almost 10% -- specifically, 9.6% between 1926 and
2008, according to Vanguard.
Focus on reality
When the stock market
is having fits and investors are panicking, it can be easy to wring
your hands, gnash your teeth, and think that the investing world as we
knew it has come to an end, and that now, anything can happen. That
seems kind of wrong to me. Sure, anything can happen in the short term
-- as it quite emphatically did in 2008. But over the long haul, the
market has pretty much always trended upward.
If you're a trader, you might think of shares of stock simply as
electronic numbers that go up and down at random. But in fact, they
represent a real share that you own in a real company. And just take a
look at how some of those companies are faring:
|
Stock
|
TTM Revenue
|
Change From Previous Year
|
|
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
|
$47.3 billion
|
12.4%
|
|
General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
|
$31.9 billion
|
10.3%
|
|
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)
|
$21.7 billion
|
19.6%
|
|
XTOEnergy (NYSE: XTO)
|
$8.7 billion
|
18.5%
|
|
Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG)
|
$2.6 billion
|
25.3%
|
|
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN)
|
$2.2 billion
|
21.4%
|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's. TTM = trailing 12 months.
As you can see, even with the economy still struggling, these
companies have seen their businesses hold up pretty well. People are
still buying books and electronics. They're still traveling for the
holidays, and they still need oil and gas. These are real companies,
with real revenue and real earnings and real futures.
Sure, the recession has hit some companies harder than others.
People are likely to put off buying big-ticket items if they can get
away with it, so companies that rely solely on those items have
suffered. Similarly, businesses may delay making big purchases,
potentially hurting companies that cater to those businesses.
But America's economy isn't going away anytime soon. You can count on that.
Your brain, and time
You can also count
on that grey matter in your head. That's one of the few things that can
almost never be taken away from us. If you're stressing out about whether you'll have enough to retire on, you can put your brain to work by reading about your options, then taking action. You can start contributing to your IRA,
or contribute more. ($5,000 invested per year and earning an annual
average of 8% will amount to almost $250,000 in 20 years. Growing at
10%, it will top $300,000.) You can sock away more in your 401(k) --
and take steps to salvage it if you took a big hit last year.
How can I say any of that with any confidence? Because we can also count on time.
Most of us still have plenty of time in which our investments can grow.
Even if you're already 55 years old, you have a good chance of living
another 30 years. If you're lucky enough to be in your 20s or 30s, you
have enough time ahead of you to see the stock market work miracles. A
one-time $10,000 investment that grows at 10% for 40 years, for
example, will grow to more than $450,000!
So don't despair when times get tough. Remember that the stock
market has always rebounded from its falls. Remember that it's based on
actual tangible businesses. Remember that you have smarts and time on
your side to make the most of it all.
When times are tough, you can't afford to make mistakes. Find out what John Rosevear says is the biggest mistake you'll ever make.
© 2009 UCLICK L.L.C.
Post new comment