Which, of course, makes sense. After all, if a stock currently
trades at $20, the folks who bought at $18 would have seen a fairly
solid 11% return, but investors who bought in at $5 have quadrupled their money. Clearly, those who bought low are doing much, much better than those who didn't.
Is it too late?
Unfortunately, with the
overall market up more than 50% from its March lows, the easy money in
this rebound has already been made. In the stock market, as in
Pamplona, chasing after a bull run is a good way to get gored.
But there are still fortunes to be made -- opportunities to buy
stocks on the cheap. You just need to look a bit deeper to find them.
After all, not every company has participated in that tremendous
run-up. And of those that didn't, there are many that still trade at
reasonable multiples of their expected earnings over the next 12
months. Take these, for instance:
|
Company
|
Forward P/E Ratio
|
Change from 52-Week Low
|
|
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)
|
13.0
|
8.3%
|
|
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT)
|
11.4
|
60.1%
|
|
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD)
|
13.2
|
24.5%
|
|
Kroger (NYSE: KR)
|
9.5
|
6.9%
|
|
McCormick (NYSE: MKC)
|
13.9
|
24.8%
|
|
Omnicare (NYSE: OCR)
|
9.0
|
26.1%
|
|
Teleflex (NYSE: TFX)
|
12.3
|
31.5%
|
Fortunately, many of the companies that missed the boat are fundamentally solid.
You can still find bargains
In essence, these days, to follow Miller's advice and try to get the lowest average cost, you need to become a value investor.
Instead of following the herd, you need to find individual stocks that
are still, even after the overall market's tremendous rise, worth more
than the market thinks they are.
Of course, finding truly bargain-priced stocks requires a bit more
than simply screening for low forward P/E ratios. For a company to
really be value-priced, it needs to have the capability to achieve
those projected earnings. There are no hard-and-fast rules, but if a
company has two key characteristics going for it, you stack the odds in
your favor:
- A strong balance sheet: With a solid cash
position, limited debt, and other assets that can be tapped if needed,
a company has the flexibility to change its strategy as conditions
change. That increases the likelihood that the company will be able to
adjust to an ever-changing economic environment and still reach its
goals.
- Solid cash flows: On the surface, earnings seem
nice, but no company can pay the bills without cold, hard cash. To the
extent that a company can convert its earnings into actual cash in its
pockets, it shows that its business is strong enough to entice its
customers to part with their own cash. Especially in a
credit-constrained environment, that cash-generation ability is
essential for success.
With a value-focused strategy that considers not only what you're
paying, but also what you're getting for your money, you can get the
best of both worlds. You can both protect yourself from the eventual
reversal of a frothy bull market and have a chance at following
Miller's strategy of getting the lowest average price.
It's a stock picker's market
Stocks like that are nowhere near as easy to find as they were near the market bottom, but at Motley Fool Inside Value,
we're still digging them up. And as long as we can buy great companies
at reasonable prices, we'll do so. After all, if you want to win via
Miller's lowest-average-cost method, you've got to be willing to buy
solid companies when their shares are down.
If you don't want to be caught by the business end of a charging
bull market, you need to concentrate your investing dollars on those
individual companies that are still bargain-priced.
The easy money from the early bull-market run has come and gone, but
if you still want a shot at building your fortune, hunting for values
is your best chance for success. At Inside Value, it's the strategy we follow every day. To see two ideas we're excited about right now, click here to get a special free report.
© 2009 UCLICK, L.L.C
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