Whether the asset is a house, a car, a widget-making machine, or an
entire company, if the indebted owner of an asset fails to put it to
good economic use, i.e., make money, bankruptcy will move those assets
along.
The great reset button
It's that structured give and take enforced by the bankruptcy code that keeps the capital market flowing smoothly.
The right to repossess keeps lenders willing to loan money, even to
those with less than perfect repayment histories. The ability to
discharge their debts from failed attempts enables entrepreneurs to
dust themselves off and try again.
And as long as both of these things keep happening, entrepreneurs
will keep trying -- and eventually someone, somewhere, will succeed.
But that's if it's working properly
But
what's happening today in the United States in the name of economic
rescue looks more and more like the exact opposite of the structured
give and take of the bankruptcy code.
The multitrillion-dollar bailouts are bad enough, but it's the
absolute destruction of the ownership rights conferred by bankruptcy
that may well signal the utter death of America's economy.
In at least one highly publicized case, well-connected JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)
picked up an entire bank without compensation to the former company's
bondholders. More recently, Uncle Sam used the bailout funds it put
into Chrysler as a justification for forcing the terms of the
automaker's bankruptcy over the objections of its bondholders.
Building on that awful precedent, General Motors
bondholders were entitled to only 10% of that company in its bankruptcy
filing. The other 90% went to the U.S. and Canadian governments and the
union health fund.
Now, these government-dictated terms may not seem like a big deal --
but in fact they undermine the concept of private property, the rule of
law, and the protections of bankruptcy that are the foundation of a
functioning capital market.
Is it really that bad?
It is, and here's
why: Nobody forces bond investors to lend money to companies. They do
so for the reasonable expectation of a return.
The way they ensure that return -- and the reason they're willing to
lend at such low rates -- is through their right to assume control of a
company should it go bankrupt. That's how Eddie Lampert picked up
Kmart, eventually parlaying that investment into what is now Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD).
Take that right of control away, and you take away bondholders' incentive to loan money at anything below usurious rates.
That doesn't spell the end of debt financing, but it does spell the
end of cheap money -- and the end of companies that relied on it to
fuel their growth. General Growth Properties, for
instance, was forced to declare bankruptcy earlier this year, despite
having both positive operating cash flows and balance sheet equity,
because it couldn't refinance its debt.
The big problem
Companies took on
significant amounts of debt with the expectation that they could roll
over that debt when it matured. And under normal circumstances, as long
as they maintained a decent balance sheet and solid cash flows, that
was true.
These days, though, chances are good that more companies will wind
up like General Growth Properties: bankrupt not because their
businesses were failing, but because they couldn't pay off or refinance
their debt when it came due.
Chances are even better that the cost of borrowing will increase
because bondholders can no longer be assured of getting their due in
bankruptcy. From the bondholders' perspective, after all, it's the right to collect on the assets, not the act of collecting, that matters.
So who are we talking about?
Here are
just a few companies that may face substantially higher debt costs in
the future -- with all that implies for the underlying businesses.
|
Company
|
Operating Cash Flow (in Millions)
|
Net Income (in Millions)
|
Total Debt (in Millions)
|
Shareholders' Equity (in Millions)
|
|
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)
|
$16,939
|
($13,785)
|
$39,683
|
$42,288
|
|
Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX)
|
$1,372
|
($2,311)
|
$6,745
|
$13,174
|
|
Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
|
$3,068
|
($1,238)
|
$3,944
|
$11,920
|
|
Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC)
|
$471
|
($169)
|
$3,548
|
$3,523
|
|
Clear Channel Outdoor (NYSE: CCO)
|
$497
|
($3,797)
|
$2,602
|
$3,332
|
Data from Capital IQ (a division of Standard and Poor's).
In ordinary times, their decent balance sheets and positive cash
flows would be enough to ensure that they could roll over their debt as
it matures.
These days, however, with bondholders cut off from their primary
recourse in bankruptcy, the next time these debts need to roll over, it
may well be rocky, indeed. In fact, Vulcan Materials recently had to go
so far as to issue new stock to help it refinance some of its maturing
debt.
Look elsewhere for stability
In years
gone by, the argument for international investing was about
diversification or the superior growth that many foreign markets
provided. With America's debt markets upended as bondholders' rights
are stripped away, it's looking increasingly safer to keep your money overseas.
At Motley Fool Global Gains,
we've been uncovering the world's best companies since 2006, well
before this American-made mess unraveled. That experience gives us a
tremendous head start on helping you figure out how and where to invest
internationally.
If you're ready to put your money to work in the rest of the world
while the U.S. is busy imploding the very capital system that once made
it so successful, then click here for a free 30-day trial.
Copyright 2009 by United Press International.
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