To optimize our returns, we look to sell our mistakes quickly, hold sound companies for an average of three years, and then, yes, maintain our stakes in the very best of the lot for a quarter-century or more.
The best time to sell shares of a truly superior small company is almost never. Though both have disappointed greatly in recent months, selling Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) or Paccar (Nasdaq: PCAR) in the early days, after doubling your money, would have wound up costing you dearly. Both continued to crush the market for years after their initial double.
It's been more than five years, and the Hidden Gems cumulative returns thus far are gratifying. Despite a roller-coaster environment for small-cap (and most all) stocks, the team's recommendations are beating the S&P 500 by an average of eight percentage points each. There's no question that we'll have down periods. Recessions can be nasty for small-company stocks. But over time, we expect to outperform the general market by buying and holding onto the next wave of great American companies.
How do we find them? Think Wal-Mart.
One way to find the future greats is to carefully study the major winners from the past. Relatively few of the multidecade superstars are technology companies. And while we don't avoid tech stocks, they are a minority of our selections. We instead favor sleepy and underfollowed companies with high-quality management. The successes in our portfolio thus far include non-household names such as Chinese online travel agency Ctrip.com (Nasdaq: CTRP).
But for the ultimate example, think Wal-Mart.
In November 1980, Wal-Mart was trading at a split- and dividend-adjusted $0.16 per share. That's right, $0.16. But let's be clear: The stock was selling at $50 per share then, so it wasn't ever a penny stock. We think it's nearly impossible to become a penny stock millionaire -- despite the mischievous title we placed on this article. No, the greatest stocks are those of real companies, with real earnings. Because of stock splits, some investors think you'll find the next Wally World while searching among $0.16-per-share stocks. You won't.
So what has Wal-Mart done since 1980 (a full decade after it went public)?
With the stock trading around $50 as of this writing, it has returned 300 times in value over the past 28 years. A $5,000 investment back then is worth more than $1.5 million today. That'll clean up a lot of investment mistakes!
When Wal-Mart went public, it raised $4.5 million in cash to pay down debt. It was nothing back then. No one knew about it. Hardly anyone followed it, while dozens flocked to established giants such as Xerox -- a "safe bet" that has posted disappointing multidecade returns. And that plays right into our sweet spot.
Reverse-engineering a superstar
Now it's time to pick out the qualities of what has been one of the greatest 25-year investments in the history of our species. Here are the traits of Wal-Mart in its early days, traits that we look for in Hidden Gems:
Find the next one
We're not trying to reinvent the wheel here; we simply don't need to. There's something on the order of 100 years of researchable history of the U.S. stock markets, and tons of data available over the past 25 years. The Internet makes much of the research relatively quick and easy.
There are also numerous masters who have shared fully formed ideas on how to earn extraordinary returns in small caps -- from Peter Lynch to Charles Royce to Warren Buffett to Martin Whitman. By combining our research capabilities with the outstanding principles these folks have handed down, we can do a lot together to increase your wealth over the long term.
That's the aim of our Hidden Gems community every day, with thousands of members working together to examine the more than 7,000 public companies capitalized at less than $2 billion. We see the early outperformance in the long-term charts for Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and we study their early history. We have no doubt we'll find some of the market's major winners over the next three to 35 years. Panning for these small-cap studs is our full-time work -- and our mission.
Copyright © 2009 Universal Press Syndicate.