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Breezes are better than hurricanes, and showers are preferable to downpours. Too much of a good thing can really be a downer.
Too Much of a Good Thing for Miners?
It's a similar thing with the recent enormous rally among shares of virtually all metal miners, from BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) to Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) -- too much, too soon. Although I expect a broad recovery for commodity stocks to become a theme for 2009, I think we still have a mammoth near-term obstacle to overcome: fourth-quarter earnings.

What started with 1.6-billion-dollar acquisition fiasco of family firms a month ago has ended in B. Ramalinga Raju, chairman of Satyam Computer Services, bringing the whole house down with him. What’s more troubling is that the scam by Satyam, which means truth in Sanskrit ironically, is threatening to shake Indian software industry as well.

Bringing Down the House

The scam has already sent stock market spiraling out of control. Satyam’s share prices fell down 78 percent to Rs 39.95 and, since Satyam stock holds a 1.56 per cent weight in the 30-share bluechip index, Sensex lost 749 points, and counting, on Wednesday itself.

The benchmark index also, as an aftereffect, lost over 400 points. The company’s shares nosedived 90 per cent in the United States, where it is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. All up, as the panic spread, nearly 270 million shares changed hands on the fateful day in both the stock exchanges.

Noted for their simplicity and other advantages over mutual funds, exchange-traded funds have become a popular investing tool. ETFs hold a collection of stocks that share certain elements and allow investors to get in early on what they believe are tomorrow's big trends.
ETF Teardown: The Best Chip Stocks

Investors bullish on future growth in the semiconductor sector, for example, can turn to Semiconductor HOLDRs or iShares S&P North American Technology/Semiconductors Index . But because these ETFs invest in a number of chip-related stocks, their diversity also limits your upside -- and investors may dilute stellar returns from that one amazing company in the crowd.

Fear not, Fool -- in this edition of "ETF Teardown," we'll use some nifty tools to drill into the best investments in the semiconductor sector. To help, we'll use Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for screening and ranking stocks and stock pickers.

I've complained in the past about Talbots' (NYSE: TLB) beleaguered business and its stock's trading volatility. Yesterday, the shares closed up 33% on word that the company had secured more credit. Don't be fooled, folks: Talbots is still a great stock to avoid.
Talbots: Just Don't Do It
The company said it has entered agreements with three banks to convert uncommitted working capital lines of credit into committed lines, for a total of $150 million in available credit. It's also negotiating with a fourth bank to convert the remaining $15 million credit facility to a committed line as well.
Hey there, Fools. I've summoned our Motley Fool CAPS community once again to highlight a few of Monday's biggest winners among the stocks with a top rating of five stars.
Monday's Biggest Stock Stars
Without further ado: Realtors allege Fannie hitting borrowers for profits

Washington, United States, January 3: Fannie Mae’s drive to limit its losses and boost profits entails increased burden on borrowers, the National Association of Realtors alleged after United States’ largest mortgage finance company, to improve its revenues, Monday raised the fee charged to lenders for buying mortgages.

Can you spot a winner? I can. Maybe not always, but more often than not. I call it my special purpose.
The Greatest Stock Story Ever Told
But can it make you rich?
Sure. Imagine you paid that guy Hiro from Heroes to bend time and space for you. You could whisk back to July 1995 and buy Dell Computer . Take along $1,000, and 10 years later, you've got $39,000.
In music they're called one-hit wonders, singers who belt out tunes but are never able to regain the magic of their big hit song. Think Norman Greenbaum's "Spirit in the Sky" or Brownsville Station's "Smokin' in the Boys Room." Monster hits never to be repeated.
10 Stocks to Shake the Market
We have seen similar one-hit wonders in stocks, too, like Pets.com or drkoop.com. Companies that burst on the scene -- many during the tech bubble heyday -- and never to live up to the promise they held.
Even on the market's worst days, buyout news and other short-term forces can send individual stocks up by 10%, 25%, even 50%.    
3 Stocks Bucking the Downtrend

For example, shares in real estate investment trust ProLogis gained 31.5% in a day after the company announced moves to raise billions in cash and received an upgrade from Wachovia Capital Markets.

But beyond less-predictable events like that one are stocks with fundamentally compelling reasons for recent momentum. The trick is to find those stocks. That's where Motley Fool CAPS comes in.

"The idea of buying a former superstar stock at a discount price certainly has its attractions, but you've got to make sure you catch the haft -- not the blade."
Drop-Dead Gorgeous Stocks
So goes the thesis of my weekly Fool.com column "Get Ready for the Bounce." Therein, I run the 52-week-lows list compiled by Nasdaq.com through the "wisdom-of-crowds" meter that we call Motley Fool CAPS. And out the other end comes a list of stocks that have fallen so far, Foolish investors figure they're just bound to bounce back soon.
If you're thinking of selling your stocks, you're not alone. According to insider tracker Form 4 Oracle, executives at these three firms cashed in shares last week:
Stocks to Avoid Now?

Company

Closing Price 12/26/08

Total Value Sold

52-Week Change

Nike (NYSE: NKE)

$49.76

$210,115

(23.5%)

Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD)

$10.80

$9,104,469

(63.8%)

Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO)

$58.98

$8,779,583

(30.9%)

Sources: Fool.com, Yahoo! Finance, Form 4 Oracle.

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The week's selling

Company

Closing Price 12/26/08

Total Value Sold

52-Week Change

Nike (NYSE: NKE)

$49.76

$210,115

(23.5%)

Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD)

$10.80

$9,104,469

(63.8%)

Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO)

$58.98

$8,779,583

(30.9%)

Sources: Fool.com, Yahoo! Finance, Form 4 Oracle.

Short-sellers and hedge funds, though sometimes shadowy, are often considered the smartest investors in the room. They did their homework and will bet their capital against the crowd. That may not be the most popular way to go, but its rewards can be quite lucrative.
These 5 Underdogs Are No Dogs
On Motley Fool CAPS, we've got our own brand of leading analysts, each of whom found the chinks in a company's armor and correctly called its fall. "Underdogs" are investors who earned 100 or more CAPS points by correctly predicting that one or more stocks would underperform the market.
When a stock hits a fresh low, it can either signal a dirt cheap dream stock or a dreadful stock to avoid. Separating the wheat from the chaff is difficult, but finding well-run companies at bargain-basement prices is a great way to accumulate a fortune over the long run.
3 Stocks Hitting Low Notes
With that in mind, we'll use the aggregate intelligence of the 125,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS to see what the community is saying about stocks hitting 52-week lows today. The community's approval (signified by four- and five-star ratings) could indicate that further research is in order.
Stocks that climb to 10 times their original price are a rare breed -- but they're not impossible to find. Especially when you have Fools for friends.
Tomorrow's Monster Stocks?
The market's best stocks include companies that have risen dozens of times in value over the past decade. These aren't penny stocks; they're viable companies with sound business prospects, achieving phenomenal returns every year. Finding just one or two of these monstrously successful firms can help you establish a winning portfolio.
My friend swears he's learned his lesson
Get Ready for a 25% Drop
Back in July of 1995, this friend -- let's call him Charlie -- bought Microsoft at what turned out to be the highest price it would see that year. The stock was down 15% in no time, and Charlie was worried. He was smart enough to know that the market is the best wealth-creating machine available to us regular folks, but he felt about stocks the way Elizabeth Taylor felt about husbands. He liked them well enough, but he tended to give up when things got a little rocky. Syndicate content

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