Ralcorp Cashes In on Trading Down

As cash-strapped consumers abandon brand loyalty and wheel their grocery carts toward the cheap stuff, Ralcorp is well positioned to benefit from its full line of snacks, sweets, condiments, and sauces. Now it's enjoying an analyst upgrade, a Forbes endorsement, and even a big "boo-yah" from Jim Cramer.

To understand why, just keep an eye on fellow shoppers' buying habits the next time you're at the supermarket. Even if you can only identify a move from, say, ultra-pricey Hain Celestial (Nasdaq: HAIN) products to Costco's (Nasdaq: COST) Kirkland brand, it's a reasonable bet that a lot of consumers in these trying economic times are also abandoning Kellogg (NYSE: K) in favor of Ralcorp's knock-off store brands.

But Ralcorp would be an attractive investment even without the trade-down effect. In its fourth quarter of 2008, 68% of its sales growth came from Post Foods, which it acquired from Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) earlier in the year. That acquisition gives Ralcorp a mix of premium and generic brands that distinguishes it from competitor Treehouse Foods (NYSE: THS). Moreover, Ralcorp holds an approximately 19% interest in Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN), which, ostensibly, offers the company a good chance to take part in any economic upturn.

Ralcorp isn't a classic blue-chip name; but many such stalwarts have revealed an inner shade of periwinkle in 2008. And as fellow Fool Julie Clarenbach recently counseled, playing traditional defense in today's nontraditional market is a dangerous game.

Copyright © 2008 Universal Press Syndicate.