I found one recently, and I got to thinking about the others out there when I read money manager Bill Miller's comment that "the market abounds with good value." Of course, Mr. Miller also wrote last August that stocks were the cheapest they'd been since 1991 ... and after a brief rebound, they've gone right on dropping. Mr. Miller's fund has suffered thanks to core holdings in some recently falling stocks such as AES (NYSE: AES) and eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY).
Given wary financial markets, a recent rash of writedowns, and a slowing economy, it should be clear that not all stocks that look cheap are cheap (with no disrespect intended to the talented Mr. Miller). Both Warren Buffett and John Hussman have recently affirmed that lesson.
There are, however, some individual stocks today that, for one reason or another, not only present "good value," but are outrageously cheap.
Back up the truck, people What makes for an outrageously cheap stock? Here's my short list:
A balance sheet with lots of cash and no debt.
An EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.0 or less.
A business with the financial strength and strategy to survive and thrive in a down economy.
No potential for massive writedowns.
A stock price that's been pummeled.
Of course, there's not a single American company with a market cap of more than $6 billion that meets those criteria, so if you're looking for an outrageously cheap stock, you may need to start thinking of yourself as a small-cap investor.
Welcome to the jungle In truth, large caps such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) attract far too much investor attention to ever become inefficiently priced. That $210 billion consumer giant is tracked by 17 sell-side analysts.
You generally won't find as much interest among small caps, which is one of the reasons why -- given the criteria above -- Volcom (Nasdaq: VLCM), Horsehead Holding (Nasdaq: ZINC), and Miller Industries (NYSE: MLR) look outrageously cheap.
Company
EV/EBITDA
Cash on Hand
Investors Scared Because ...
Volcom
6.0
$71 million
Consumer discretionary spending downturn.
Horsehead
2.0
$79 million
Zinc prices are low due to a global inventory surplus.
Miller
3.1
$24 million
Rising raw material costs and declining market for trucks.
Data from Capital IQ as of Aug. 6, 2008.
Yes, that last subhead was a Guns N' Roses reference The reason we love being small-cap investors at Motley Fool Hidden Gems is because it's the one area of the market where, thanks to inefficiencies and lack of Wall Street interest, stocks can become outrageously cheap. Of course, in a down market like this one, that lack of efficiency can make for some gut-wrenching downside volatility.
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This article was first published on March 14, 2008. It has been updated.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on themoneytimes.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. TheMoneyTimes advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.
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