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The Microsoft Dilemma: HD DVD or Blu-Ray?

It has been an eventful Friday as far as HD DVD is concerned. First, Warner declared its preference for Blu-ray over HD DVD, and then the HD DVD Promotion Group canceled its CES press conference. While the immediate reaction in the market probably is that it is doomsday for HD DVD, what will be more interesting to see is Microsoft’s stand in the entire episode.

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It has been an eventful Friday as far as HD DVD is concerned. First, Warner declared its preference for Blu-ray over HD DVD, and then the HD DVD Promotion Group canceled its CES press conference. While the immediate reaction in the market probably is that it is doomsday for HD DVD, what will be more interesting to see is Microsoft’s stand in the entire episode.

The Microsoft angle is interesting for there has been talk lately that the CES keynote address Bill Gates is slated to address has as one of its highlights the introduction to the world of an Xbox 360 version with inbuilt HD DVD drive, the Xbox 360 Ultimate.

Microsoft has, of course, already put out a statement to the effect that since the launch of the Xbox 360 HD DVD player, the company has been making it clear there were no plans to have another Xbox 360 version with inbuilt HD DVD. This statement may be out just to kill off rumors about its possible launch of the Xbox 360 Ultimate; at least that is the general feeling around.

As events stand now, it seems Microsoft made the wrong choice as far as HD DVD is concerned. On the positive side, Microsoft does not yet have an Xbox 360 with inbuilt HD DVD. However, it does offer an external HD DVD drive for the Xbox. Warner’s announcement of support for Blu-ray would therefore hurt Microsoft probably.

However, it is still not curtains for Microsoft. One way out would be to change formats and tag an external drive, but with Blu-ray instead of the external HD DVD drive. Another way out would be probably to come out with the Xbox 360 Ultimate, but add an internal drive with Blu-ray instead of HD DVD.

While some may consider the fact of having to admit making the wrong choice embarrassing for Microsoft, it still holds that the company would have to make such a change and swallow the embarrassment if required. It could even wait a while, till it comes out with its next future console and make the changes in that box.

One thing is for sure: Microsoft cannot escape making that choice. It could change over to Blu-ray, which would mean literally curtains for HD DVD or it could continue backing HD DVD.

For Bill Gates, addressing this issue becomes critical, and the sooner he does it the better. He could do the safe thing and announce in his keynote address his company’s change in strategy and opt for the Blu-ray over HD DVD, or he could take a risk and come out with a strong statement lending support to the embattled HD DVD.

Whichever way Mr. Gates chooses to go, one would now definitely look forward to his CES keynote address.

Anonymous's picture

OK

People are putting way too much emphasis on Microsoft, they are just a member company of the HD DVD group, they are not even one of the leading supporters.
This is NOT about Toshiba and MS trying to defeat Sony. The leading companies in the group are Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC, and Memory Tech.

MS owns the VC1 codec that IMHO is best for HD coding, both Bluray and HDDVD use this code, so I really don't think MS is as concerned with all this as many of you seem to think. If they were, HDDVD would probably be winning.

Anonymous's picture

am i the only one who thinks

am i the only one who thinks that this HD-DVD and BluRay are just a fad? I personally dont think either format will do well, DVD's will remain standard for a couple years and everything will begin to shift to downloads entirely. Really, who likes using disks anyway? 1TB hdds are down to 250 bucks, soon to be much lower, more people have high speed internet. Concepts such as Microsoft Silverlight, and xbox live services will prevail.

Common sense's picture

Um are you serious? Why does

Um are you serious? Why does Microsoft need to acknowledge any mistakes? Does Intel also need to admit they backed the wrong format, because they back HDDVD as well. Sure MS sells a HDDVD add on for the 360 but Toshiba manufactures that product, MS sold quite a few and will simply stop selling them if HDDVD goes extinct, no skin off MS's back. There is nothing Gates needs to address here. Bill Gates is big on digital downloads so I don't think MS invested much in the disk format anyway, I think the HDDVD add on was a favor to Toshiba, or possibly even a deal, Toshiba probably payed MS to sell the Toshiba add on with the 360 name on it. So don't give me this crap about MS needs to admit a mistake, as usual MS is two steps ahead of eveyone around them, they made their money either way, and they will keep doing so when both formats are dead, digital is the future, and from the looks of the success of it on Xbox live, MS is leading us into the digital download era.

Anonymous's picture

Who Cares

All this drama is a head fake to lure us back into a format that cant be pirated...
Like rats following the piper...
except most STILL wont touch either,

superdynamite's picture

Microsoft

I feel bad for the consumer that was tricked into buying the half-baked format known as HD-DVD.

The only place HD-DVD even sold was in N. America.

Shame on you Toshiba & M$

Anonymous's picture

HA HA, Microsoft will never

HA HA, Microsoft will never go blue, because they will not pay money to sony to use that format. What they can do is to buy Warner and Fox (they have the money to do just that) and make them go HD DVD.

Anonymous's picture

What does a game machine

What does a game machine have anything to do with having to pick a side?

Anonymous's picture

Continuing to support HD-DVD

Continuing to support HD-DVD simply doesn't make any sense because there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of them winning this format war.

Pravin's picture

Political issues make Blu-ray switch unlikely

Many people don't realize that there were some political issues behind why some companies lined up on one side or the other of the format war.

Blu-ray uses Java for its advanced interactivity features, and HD DVD completely avoids it. Microsoft and Sun (the owner of Java) do not get along at all, and it was natural that Microsoft would promote non-Java technologies for HDi, the interactivity engine on HD DVD.

Blu-ray is primarily driven by Sony and on the PS3, whereas Microsoft has its own competing game console. Not only were Blu-ray and HD DVD drives not out when the Xbox 360 went into production, Microsoft has no reason to validate or support Sony's inclusion of that in the competing game console.

While the 360 has the computing ability to eventually read and decode just about any kind of disc, Microsoft would have to get a deal going with Sun just to use Java. And they really have no big reason to go that far, because it does nothing to enhance the 360 as a game console. By the time all of this kind of thing gets worked out, you'll probably be able to buy a Blu-ray player for $100 any way.

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